2011 Utah Market Analysis and Interest Rates
The end of a year and beginning of another is always a great time to analyze the past year and make a forecast for the oncoming year. This blog entry will first explain current mortgage interest rates, including a forecast for interest rates for 2012, and will be followed by an analysis for the 2011 Utah Real Estate Market also with a forecast for 2012. Many pieces of information in this entry have been dervived or used from various articles, newsletters, graphs, etc. produced by local lenders, national corporations, etc. I have tried to italicize and quote where applicable.
Conv. 30yr 3.875%
Interest rates are still at HISTORICAL LOWS and it willnot last like this forever! These rates results in savings of hundreds of dollars per month, thousands per year and tens of thousands over the lifetime of the loan. In addition, these rates also allow buyers to qualify for more home for the same payment compared to the more normal interest rates of 5.5-6.5% (the rates that we expect to see once again when the economy completely recovers).
DO NOT WAIT for these rates to disappear!! WIth the lowest home prices in a decade and historic low interest rates, there is no reason not to buy now, especially if you plan to live in the home for at least a few years!! Seriously why rent and make others money when you can be making money yourself?!
Review of Last Week
''GOODBYE, 2011!...The wild year on Wall Street ended not with a bang but a whimper, as stocks slumped slightly for the week on very light trading. Volatility was the theme for 2011, although when all was said and done, the broadly based S&P 500 stock index ended dead flat for the year. This reflects how many investors view the economy: recovering so slowly, its growth slope is practically horizontal. The year's volatility was echoed in a 140-point drop Wednesday followed by a 136-point surge the very next day.
Forecast for 2012
Real Estate Markets
National Market Update
'Last week's Pending Home Sales index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) went UP 7.3% in November, hitting its highest level since April 2010! And that earlier reading was artificially boosted, as buyers rushed to beat the deadline for last year's home buyer tax credit.'
Utah Market Update
'Stable' seems to be best word to describe the end of 2011 and beginning of 2012 Real Estate Market in Utah (Utah and Salt Lake Counties).
Within the market, there are definitely some types of housing and areas that are struggling, while others have been stable since 2009 and others that are showing some strong appreciation. This is why it is so important to hire a qualified real estate agent who can help you better understand your specific market and trends. The 'Real Estate Market' is so complicated and diverse that it is impossible to use a blanket statement to accurately cover all sub-markets.
The first half of 2011 saw a huge hit to older homes , condos and townhouses, and areas of lesser demand (suburbs and rural areas). At the same time, newer homes have been very stable, large newer homes have experienced some appreciation, and major urban centers have seen appreciation as there exists very little land left to develop. See graphs below for examples. If you would like a custom market analysis for your property(ies), all you have to do is ask.
The bottom line is that as a whole in Utah and Salt Lake Counties, most real estate professionals are expecting 2012 to be a year of stability, with some slight appreciation as a whole and continued increases in overall home sales.
Below contains sections from a chart produced by the Utah Association of Realtors which contains accurate numbers for home sales. It was very difficult to format but I hope you can follow it. If not, let me know, and I will email you a complete PDF on this chart.
Local Market Updates by County
Closed Sales Median Sales Price*
11-2010 11-2011 + / – YTD 2010 YTD 2011 + / – 11-2010 11-2011 + / – YTD 2010 YTD 2011 + / –
Davis County217 236 + 8.8% 2,776 2,746 - 1.1% $196,850 $186,550 - 5.2% $201,214 $185,000 - 8.1%
Salt Lake County 760 867 + 14.1% 9,561 10,379 + 8.6% $200,000 $178,500 - 10.8% $209,000 $185,000 - 11.5%
Utah County 373 404 + 8.3% 4,527 4,951 + 9.4% $184,900 $176,945 - 4.3% $190,000 $178,000 - 6.3%
Wasatch County 46 36 - 21.7% 416 490 + 17.8% $331,750 $202,500 - 39.0% $275,000 $229,000 - 16.7%
Entire State 2,285 2,523 + 10.4% 27,811 30,036 + 8.0% $186,250 $170,000 - 8.7% $190,000 $175,000 - 7.9%
* Does not account for seller concessions. | Some figures are for one month worth of activity and can look extreme due to small sample size.
This report includes data from the Wasatch Front Regional Multiple Listing Service, the Iron County Multiple Listing Service, the Washington County Multiple Listing Service, the Carbon/Emery Multiple Listing Service, the Central Utah Multiple Listing Service, the Grand/San Juan Multiple Listing Service, and the Park City Multiple Listing Service. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
Utah Real Estate Market Graphs
1. Utah and Salt Lake Counties
2. Utah and Salt Lake Counties 1990 or newer
3. Utah and Salt Lake Counties 1990 and older
4. Utah and Salt Lake Counties, 2005 or newer, 5000+ sqft, .25+ acres. 3+ car garage
5. Utah and Salt Lake Counties, 2005 or newer, 3500-5000 sqft, .25+ acres. 3+ car garage
6. Utah and Salt Lake Counties, 1990-2000, condos and Townhouses
7. Spanish Fork to Pleasant Grove ALL
8. Utah County, 2005 or newer, 3500-5500 sq.ft., 3+ car garage, .25+ acres
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